"No Labels" is a group that plans to run a centrist candidate in the 2024 election. However, a No Labels candidate could act as a spoiler by siphoning voters away from one of the major party candidates (presumably the more moderate one), causing their opponent to win. Currently, it is widely believed that this would hurt Joe Biden's reelection bid, since he would lose more voters than the Republican nominee does to the No Labels candidate.

How much would this hurt him? Compare the probability of this market to

/LarsDoucet/will-joe-biden-win-the-2024-us-pres

/AmmonLam/will-joe-biden-win-the-2024-us-pres-8952413770dd