Will Kalshi's presidential election market prices converge with Polymarket by October 15?

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resolved Oct 15

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Resolves yes If the Harris Yes position on Kalshi's presidential market trades within plus/minus 1% (1 cent) of the equivalent Polymarket position throughout October 15.

The last traded prices will be used, but if they are not available, the midpoint of ask/bid will be used to substitute. If the the total prices of Harris + Trump exceed 100, I will normalize so that Harris_price / (Harris_price+Trump_price) is used.

If either market does not trade on that day, the market will resolve N/A.

This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.

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Kalshi has Harris YES at 45¢, and Polymarket has it at 43.1¢, which is a gap of more than 1¢.

This is from is 8:16am Eastern time on October 15th, 2024. Market should resolve NO.

bought Ṁ650 NO

@CharlesFoster Another instance at 2:48pm Eastern.

@CharlesFoster Yep. This is sufficient for me to resolve No.

Kalshi is converging with Polymarket. Harris is 45% on Kalshi and 44.2 on Polymarket.

sold Ṁ152 YES

Polymarket is now 4% lower on Harris compared to Kalshi

The Kalshi position is "Harris or another Democrat" while the Polymarket position is only Harris.

@traders I should clarify that if the the total prices of Harris + Trump exceed 100, I will normalize so that Harris_price / (Harris_price+Trump_price) is used. Let me know if you disagree

@PlainBG sgtm

@PlainBG Can you do normalization on both platforms, whether they are over or under 100 combined? It looks like Polymarket prices add up to LESS than 100.

@JamesBaker3 Yes I can do that

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