What will Israel strike if it responds against Iran (in 2024) following Iran’s 1st Oct 2024 missile attack on Israel.
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67
Ṁ15k
Dec 31
96%
Iranian Military / IRGC Assets - Air Defences
93%
Iranian Military / IRGC Assets - Missile Forces
73%
Iranian Military / IRGC Assets - Iranian airforce or airbases
71%
Iranian Military Industrial Complex - factories, manufacturing facilities, companies involved
59%
Iranian Intelligence Facilities- offices of the MOI or IRGC intelligence
39%
Iranian Military / IRGC Assets - Naval vessels or naval bases
30%
Iranian Leadership - supreme leader, guardian council etc (civilian or religious, IRGC etc)
26%
Iranian Diplomatic or Consular Facilities outside of Iran (Damascus, Beirut etc)
23%
Iranian Oil Infrastructure - Oil refineries, export terminals, pipelines, tankers
19%
Iranian Energy Infrastructure - non nuclear power stations, transmission infrastructure,
18%
None (no attack on Iran itself) in 2024
15%
Iranian Energy Infrastructure - nuclear facilities
4%
Iranian Nuclear Programme - enrichment, storage, (including underground) etc facilities

Time bound to a response in 2024. No response in 2024 or responses against proxies only will resolve “none (no attack on Iran itself) in 2024”. Multiple yes resolutions are possible.

Iranian territory includes Iran and offshore islands. Update: an answer including Iranian diplomatic facilities is now an option, as many would consider this Iranian territory too.

Air defences might be air defences under any branch of the Iranian military or IRGC (including say naval air defences in a naval base), but will not resolve yes if only other platforms that include air defences (eg a warship with air defences) is struck.

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bought Ṁ25 Iranian Military / I... YES

As a note, most missile or air attack might be expected to target air defences first in order to open up other targets for an attack. This may not be the case if there is a missile only response.

bought Ṁ350 Iranian Diplomatic o... NO

@Pjfkh Israel has apparently hit some air defenses in Syria this week (which would be on the flight path to Iran), which is at least some evidence they'd also hit Iranian defenses in a strike

@ShakedKoplewitz Indeed would expect air defence suppression to be part of a large strike, especially one involving manned platforms (F35, F15, F16 etc). Perhaps not so for a missile / cruise missile strike, but even then maybe a first phase on this could be possible.

Iran has Russian S300s and I think maybe S400s, neither of which has performed well in Ukraine (they have been very vulnerable to both storm shadow / scalp and HIMARS rocket artillery attacks). .

In April Israel launched a limited attack on an S-300 battery protecting the nuclear facilities at Natanz. For this Israel apparently used new air-launched ballistic missiles. In this case, it was a signal to Iran that it’s air defences will not be able to protect assets if Israel chooses to strike further. If Israel strikes Iran again following October 1st, I would not expect to only see an air defence battery attacked, but an actual “other” asset too. (IMO)