This market predicts whether U.S. Vice President JD Vance will have an official meeting with Pope Leo XIV before July 1, 2025. Pope Leo XIV, formerly Robert Francis Prevost, was elected on May 8, 2025, becoming the first American pope. Given their shared nationality and previous interactions, a meeting between Vance and Pope Leo XIV is plausible. Resolution will be based on official announcements from the Vatican or the U.S. Vice President's office.
Update 2025-05-19 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator has indicated, by citing a Washington Post article, that a meeting described as a 'formal meeting' is relevant to the market's resolution. This suggests that:
A 'formal meeting' reported by a reputable news source (e.g., Washington Post) may be considered to fulfill the 'official meeting' criterion.
Such a news report may be used as evidence for resolution, in relation to the market's requirement for 'official announcements from the Vatican or the U.S. Vice President's office'.
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https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2025/05/19/pope-vance-rubio-trump/
The meeting took place Monday morning
@FabioTran Official meeting between state officials means just them, in private, plus at most a few advisors, like when Vance met Francis, or how the Pope is being reported as having met with Zelenskyy and Boluarte. Not being one among hundreds to shake the Pope's hand in a room with thousands of people
@FabioTran I understand your point of view and it's unfortunate that this market is not more clearly phrased.
However, it was always obvious that Vance would shake the Pope's hand after the First Mass, along with hundreds of others. There's no need for "shared nationality" for that to happen.
@FabioTran You're tagging the wrong person man lmao.
Nobody disputes that Vance shook the Pope's hand. That's not what "official meeting" means.
My point is that the question doesn’t imply an audience, but if Vance met the pope officially. If I read the description and resolution criteria, this meets all requirements. 1) He went in an official US delegation; 2)he met with the pope; 3) The White House announced this meeting.
I can understand that some people where expecting a private audience, but this is implied and never explicitly stated.
@pietrokc I don’t believe the resolution criteria requires a private meeting. Vance met him as part of an official US delegation.
@FabioTran @ChadCotty "Have an official meeting" seems different than "I shook the Pope's hand."
For instance, I have shook Hillary Clinton's hand once, at a book signing in 2014. You can relate that "news" in as many official channels as you want, but if I put on my resume that I had an official meeting with Hillary Clinton, anyone would be able to notice that that's a lie.
I support resolving the question based on the ordinary meanings of words.
@TiredCliche VATICAN CITY — Vice President JD Vance and Secretary of State Marco Rubio held their first formal meeting with Pope Leo XIV on Monday. Washington Post
@FabioTran I believe official delegation shouldn't be resolved as official meeting. I agree that it should be like 1 to 1 with some advisors or similar.
I do agree it's controversial for handshake, but luckily it doesn't matter now.