Will there be more than 1 year of more than 100 attributable agentic human deaths from AI before a human gigadeath event
5
110Ṁ2812065
87%
chance
1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Period will be defined as from when the 100th agentic AI human death is identified and agreed upon (list and method TBD) and the first human gigadeath (10^9)
Assumes a start date of no earlier than 1 Jan 2023
Edited - note risks to both liquidity and resolution of events around gigadeaths
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