Will OpenAI make available to the public any product using Strawberry technology before the end of 2024?
90
Ṁ47k
resolved Sep 15
Resolved
YES

OpenAI is reportedly working on a project called Strawberry. Strawberry is a continuation of the Q* project and is intended to create AI with "Human-like" reasoning skills.

https://www.reuters.com/technology/artificial-intelligence/openai-working-new-reasoning-technology-under-code-name-strawberry-2024-07-12/

This market will resolve yes if and only if OpenAI states that some technology it has made available to the public utilises Strawberry technology before 1/1/2025- else no.

I will not trade in the market.

Get Ṁ1,000 play money

🏅 Top traders

#NameTotal profit
1Ṁ751
2Ṁ563
3Ṁ416
4Ṁ365
5Ṁ329
Sort by:

On the basis of:

  1. Reuters reporting: https://www.reuters.com/technology/artificial-intelligence/openai-launches-new-series-ai-models-solve-hard-problems-2024-09-12/

  2. Tweets by senior OpenAI employees: https://x.com/aweisawei/status/1834283947196645842

  3. Most importantly, the use of the Strawberry symbol in conjunction with the O1 project here: https://x.com/OpenAI/status/1834320155989664067

I am resolving yes.

Almost certain this will resolve yes since senior OpenAI people have made allusions that this new model involves Strawberry, but I will hold off for a little while until I can find evidence of an official statement from OpenAI itself, or an authorised spokesperson, saying this is Strawberry, which I expect will happen soon.

If it becomes clear that OpenAI is refusing to clarify whether O1 is Strawberry or not, I will have to consider how to resolve this.

@PhilosophyBear Just look at Noam Brown's bio, or his tweets (OpenAI research scientist working on strawberry/O1). They're damning, and he is good enough of a source for Reuters (https://www.reuters.com/technology/artificial-intelligence/openai-launches-new-series-ai-models-solve-hard-problems-2024-09-12/).

For instance, https://x.com/polynoamial/status/1834299868078375106, https://x.com/polynoamial/status/1834280155730043108 (aka strawberry), and even this tweet on how the name strawberry came to be (https://x.com/polynoamial/status/1834312400419652079).

I'm not bothered, nor do I have the time, to go through the 10-20 OpenAI employees respective tweets conflating the two (e.g., https://x.com/far_and_awei/status/1834283947196645842). You can also find third-party entities that were granted early access, who confirm it is strawberry.

I do not believe OpenAI will come out and provide more information related to the codename these models used internally (strawberry) going forward.

There is no evidence of this so called "Strawberry technology". It is just a meme.

@ZinqTable interesting timing

@PhilosophyBear Are you resolving?

@PhilosophyBear It is in response to people at openAI making tweets with the strawberry emoji. It is literally just a meme.

@ZinqTable It's not just "people at openAI", but from the official corporate OpenAI accounts, third-party beta customers of the model (Harvey, etc.), and the news (The Information, The Verge, etc.).

@Ashwin potato potato

@ZinqTable Are you serious...

@Ashwin More serious than "strawberry". Four hundred mana on NO serious.

@Ashwin Do you have a link to the corporate account explicitly saying o1 is strawberry-based?

I am almost certain this will resolve yes, but it would be good to have an official mouthpiece state it.

@PhilosophyBear No corporate account from OpenAI on X has clarified that it is strawberry-based through text. However, there are two tweets: https://x.com/OpenAI/status/1834320155989664067; https://x.com/ChatGPTapp/status/1834282491878015099, where they use the strawberry emoji in reference to the new model(s). Most of the understanding that this is based on the conjectured strawberry-technology has been through Noam Brown, the OpenAI researcher working on these new models.

Curious how you will resolve this. AFAICT none of the official statements from OpenAI so far (the website, the system card, the X account) have yet stated that this new release utilizes Strawberry technology. That alleged code-word is never mentioned.

@CharlesFoster Multiple comms from OpenAI-adjacent entities, or OpenAI themselves, declaring the underlying technology is Strawberry. See https://x.com/ChatGPTapp/status/1834282490661638259 with the Strawberry emoji, or from an OpenAI employee saying "aka strawberry" https://x.com/polynoamial/status/1834280155730043108 as examples. I'm sure there'll be more in the future as well.

bought Ṁ1,156 YES

@Ashwin Guy deleted for some reason.

Wow @Mira

oh boy

Nice pivot.

Autonomous internet search capability? Nothing could go wrong there, no siree!