I'm broadly an index-fund investor, but both of the times I've felt particularly strongly that I should buy a particular stock at a particular moment (Nvidia after the Deepseek moment, SK Hynix yesterday), it seems to have worked out well for me. I've invested a bit in other individual stocks and I'm sure I've beaten the market overall with those as well but during my time investing it has largely been a bull market so I don't put much stock (heh) in that.

From market close 08/28/26 to market close 09/01/28 I will track the performance of the S&P 500 vs the performance of my non-index investments, expressed in annual average return. This market resolves NO if the former offers a better return over that time, YES if the latter does.

The title refers to individual stock trading, but if I decide at some point to trade options or invest in other assets, their performance would be included as well. I will include cash-on-hand that is not part of my checking account or emergency fund as part of my non-index investments for calculating return purposes. I would not try to trade full-time or anywhere near it.

I do plan to be significantly safer with my actual money than my mana. Feel free to ask me questions in the comments, which I may or may not answer. Feel free to give me advice as well.

READ THIS: If this market is trading low enough at market close on 08/28/26, I will decide not to individually pick/trade stocks more, and will N/A the market. To avoid manipulation, I've committed to the percentage where I will do this (see below). If I otherwise believe there to be market manipulation I currently plan to not N/A and carry on, but I reserve the right to change this.

The hash is 4d1cc8b314cf228571b5481d2d98ae9edf753ccbdfd40b3cddf030af6d65a195.

If I N/A the market as a result of the market trading sufficiently low, I will give a subsidy of 20Ṁ to each trader (not including bots).

I will not trade on this market.