Will more YouTubers join manifold by the end of 2024?
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resolved Sep 11
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YES

Recently CGP grey joined manifold, preceding that the Destiny community and lex Fridman joined manifold. By the end of 2024? Will any large/notable YouTuber join manifold?

I'll set the cut off at 100k+ subscribers, but that number is open to negotiation.

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predicted NO

based on info from @JustifieduseofFallibilism, it would appear Bryan Johnson @zero (485k subs) joined, and and has bet in a market. I checked the time stamps of his tweet and his market actions, and it seems to line up to be the real Bryan Johnson.

predicted NO

This market seems very very likely to happen, If people are up for it it could be a little more interesting to increase the subscription count to 1 million. But in the meantime I made a hopefully less lopsided market.

Would Destiny actually have counted for this market? To my knowledge, Destiny himself has not made an account.

@Conflux I'm assuming Lex Fridman would have counted though

bought Ṁ1 of NO

@Conflux He did not, so if he did I would count it. Did lex join? Either way it’s open only to people who join after the market opened

@PhatFree Yep!

predicted NO

@Conflux Wow! When did he join? I presume before the market opened. I’ll change the description though to be more accurate

@PhatFree Yeah, months ago.

Made a market so people can predict who the next big creator will be!

So if any one youtuber with 100k+ subscribers joins - that would be sufficient here?

bought Ṁ5 of NO

@verdantnonsense That’s my proposal, but I’m open to suggestions

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