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MANIFOLD
Who will be first to perform a perfect Super Mario Bros. 1 speedrun?
2
Ṁ3.5kṀ372
2030
20%
LeKukie
16%
averge11
26%
Niftski
14%
An old-timer coming out of retirement (let's say just Kosmic, darbian, Saradoc, Somewes, or AndrewG)
11%
One of the upstarts (let's say just KingOfJonnyBoy, MW_65536, Aryll, JeremyMKW, or ScratchySpeedrunner)
14%
Anyone else (critically, including Miniland, Tree_05, etc.)

Incredibly, for the first time ever, it seems like a perfect Super Mario Bros. 1 speedrun is actually going to humanly happen. Both LeKukie and Niftski are now explicitly aiming for a perfect run, something which was previously absurd to me as someone who has been following SMB1 (no L+R) any% progress for the past decade. The current world record at time of market creation is only 6 frames off of perfect.

Resolution happens when someone gets a 4:54.265 (namely, 17,685 frames of gameplay) that is verified on the any% page on speedrun.com. If the current input swapping ruleset kerfuffle causes contention I'll defer to the speedrun.com leaderboard. In the unlikely event that a new strategy is discovered that lowers our notion of "perfect" (which hasn't happened in over 15 years!) I will continue to evaluate based on the first person to get the current 4:54.265 goal time that everyone is competing over.

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