As of market creation, Gavin Newsom as Democratic nominee is trading for 18% on Polymarket:
https://polymarket.com/event/democratic-presidential-nominee-2028
And 13% on Kalshi:
https://kalshi.com/markets/kxpresnomd/democratic-primary-winner/kxpresnomd-28
An option in this market resolves yes if the price differential between the two sites closes to 1% or less, by the date listed. If a price differential > 1% develops in the opposite direction between the two sites, that is also sufficient for resolution yes. If one option in this market resolves yes, all subsequent options will also resolve yes at that point in time.
Time for resolution will be midnight in pacific time on the specified date (i.e. at the very beginning of the day, not the end).
1,000People are also trading
@bobalobascrob Note that the 5% difference only started in the last 24 hours and wasn't there before.
@bobalobascrob I think this is what they are reacting to. People on the 2 sites reacted in opposite directions. I think the rational reaction is Gavin odds down, Kamala odds up. I can sort of see the opposite argument (puts pressure on Kamala to drop out if she's on the fence?), but it doesn't make as much sense.
Weird if someone pumped polymarket to go along with Gavin's statement, but maybe.
Gov. Gavin Newsom says he won't run for president if Kamala Harris runs in 2028
