If the Democrats win the white house, will the US enter a recession [WARNING: as measured by Sahm rule] before 2027? | Manifold

If the Democrats win the white house, will the US enter a recession [WARNING: as measured by Sahm rule] before 2027?

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2027

44%

chance

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If the Democratic party's nominee does not win the 2024 US presidential election, resolves N/A.

If the Democratic nominee does win, resolves Yes if the US enters a recession (according to the Sahm Rule recession indicator) before the start of 2027. Otherwise resolves No.

I will use the Sahm Rule recession indicator as shown here: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/SAHMCURRENT
If any datapoint in 2025 or 2026 is 0.5% or greater (i.e. if the 3-month-moving average of unemployment is at least 0.5% above its 12-month low) then a recession is underway, per this rule. (I'll wait until February 2027 in case of revisions, and use the most recent revision at that time.)

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Note that, as mentioned in the description, I'll resolve this by looking at datapoints in 2025 and 2026. So the fact that the indicator is currently triggered does not guarantee anything.

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