OpenAI's announcement of Sora came closely on the heels of other significant AI-related announcements, such as Google's unveiling of the 1 million token size context window for Gemini. This timing sparked speculation about whether the announcement of Sora had been scheduled for that day all along or was a strategic response from OpenAI to remain competitive.
This resolves as YES if:
A new model announcement or significant advancement in AI by another competitor (such as Anthropic, Meta, Google, Stability AI, or even Microsoft) is followed within a 24-hour interval by an announcement or release of a new model from OpenAI. ✔️ xAI Grok 1.5 annoucement.
For a YES resolution, the announcement or release from OpenAI must occur AFTER that of the competitor. Any publicly available and verifiable information clearly indicating that OpenAI's announcement or release had been planned prior to and independently of the competitor's will disqualify a YES resolution for this instance. ✔️ OpenAI Voice Model annoucement.
Given the frequent nature of AI-related announcements and releases, a YES resolution requires the competitor to be either a well-known entity (such as Anthropic, Google, etc.) or represent a significant leap forward that is on par with or surpasses OpenAI's state-of-the-art technology (for example, an unknown startup introducing an architecture significantly better than transformers or a model akin to GPT-4 would qualify). ✔️ xAI is a well-known entity.
The announcement or release may solely pertain to a scientific discovery detailed in a paper, rather than a model or product, provided the paper is published and directly related to AI. Mere claims will not qualify. This criterion applies to both competitor announcements and responses by OpenAI. ✔️ Both are models announcements.
This resolves as NO if:
The year 2024 ends without the market resolving to YES.
The market remains unresolved and a competitor achieves (and announces with proof) AGI or ASI without OpenAI announcing or releasing an equivalent or superior AGI/ASI model within 24 hours. In this context, an AI is considered AGI or ASI based on general scientific consensus.
Resolved as YES (March 29, 2024, 18:45:56 UTC):
xAI announcement of Grok 1.5 (March 28, 2024, 23:39 UTC): https://twitter.com/xai/status/1773510159740063860?t=MuEBozM5UJs2Xw5fx0DJog&s=19
OpenAI announcement of Voice Model (March 29, 2024, 16:15 UTC): https://twitter.com/OpenAI/status/1773760852153299024?t=gpD2Mf48VIAwOAqeMui98w&s=19
The time interval between both times is 16 hours and 36 minutes.
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| # | Name | Total profit |
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March 28, 2024, 23:39 UTC: xAI announces Grok 1.5, which will be available to paid users soon. They also state that the upcoming Grok 2 will surpass GPT-4.
March 29, 2024, 16:15 UTC: OpenAI announces the Voice Engine model for voice cloning.
This occurred within the 24-hour interval.
The Voice Engine was speculated by leakers to be announced soon, but no official source confirms that OpenAI had indeed planned to make the announcement today. It seems more like a response to xAI. It qualifies for the YES criteria. Therefore, the resolution for this market is YES.
March 4, 2024, 14:07 UTC: Anthropic announces and releases Claude 3.
Claude 3 Opus is the new state-of-the-art (SOTA) and surpasses GPT-4 according to evaluations.
If OpenAI announces or releases a new model or scientific paper before March 5, 2024, 14:07 UTC, this market will be resolved as YES. If not, it will remain unresolved.
@Peter1169 OpenAI didn't announce or release a new model or scientific paper before March 5, 2024, 14:07 UTC. The market will continue unresolved until the YES or NO criteria are met.