Will Manifold return Mana loans before the end of 2024?
Will Manifold return Mana loans before the end of 2024?
37
1kṀ21k
resolved Dec 7
Resolved
YES

Manifold previously allowed users to take daily Mana loans from their invested net worth, making long-term bets profitable before their resolution. This feature was discontinued in May due to the pivot, as Mana was going to be convertible into Prize Points (and from there into real money) to avoid negative balances. However, Mana is now a separate currency from Sweepcash (the old concept of Prize Points). Due to these changes, the modifications made to Mana for the pivot are being reverted, and one potential change could be the return of the loan system.

Resolves YES:

  • Manifold implements a system allowing users to borrow Mana before the end of 2024.

  • If Manifold reintroduces a loan system with a different name but the same core functionality (borrowing Mana), this market will resolve to YES.

  • Adjustments to loan terms (e.g., interest rates, loan limits) do not affect resolution, as long as the core loan functionality is restored.

  • Even if Manifold announces that Mana loans will or will not return before 2024 ends, the market won't resolve to YES until it is implemented on-site or to NO past 2024 if not implemented.

Resolves NO:

  • Manifold does not reintroduce the ability to take Mana loans before 2024 ends.

OP Trading: Given the objective nature of this market's resolution, I reserve the right to place bets. However, I will do so only after at least 5 trades or trade orders from different traders have been made, to avoid any unfair advantage.

Get
Ṁ1,000
to start trading!

🏅 Top traders

#NameTotal profit
1Ṁ1,018
2Ṁ213
3Ṁ140
4Ṁ140
5Ṁ79


Sort by:
2mo

I got one.

bought Ṁ36 YES at 99.0% 2mo
2mo

@Eliza @Peter1169 resolves YES

boughtṀ2,000YES
3mo

@ian 👀

3mo

3mo

Another possible arbitrage:

Loans resolve this market Yes

5mo

arb opportunity

What is this?

What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
ṀWhy use play money?
Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
© Manifold Markets, Inc.Terms + Mana-only TermsPrivacyRules