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MANIFOLD
Will more than 40 teams participate in the first round of the AI Forecasting Benchmark Series?
4
Ṁ1kṀ102
resolved Oct 17
Resolved
NO

https://www.metaculus.com/notebooks/25525/-announcing-the-ai-forecasting-benchmark-series--july-8-120k-in-prizes/

I will count each user/bot/team that is eligible for prize money. They must participate in 80% of questions to count.

The live announcement at Manifest said that prize money would be allocated to several categories with different scoring rules. If this turns out to be accurate, a bot must achieve 80% coverage in at least one prize-earning category to count. Its overall coverage may be lower.

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The purpose of this question was to demonstrate that this tournament can be a good deal for anyone who can program. Just figure out how to hook up to their API and you can probably earn over 1000 USD in expectation (times 4 quarters). Indeed, 23 participants earned nonzero prizes of at least 30 USD and 17 earned at least 300 USD.

The leaderboard contains 55 bots. There were 360 questions and 28 of the bots (half of them) made fewer than 288 predictions. Hence I am resolving NO.