Will I get my end of year bonus at my current employer?
Will I get my end of year bonus at my current employer?
10
190Ṁ559resolved Dec 28
Resolved
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End of year bonuses (decided around Dec 1 and paid around Dec 28) are a big part of pay at my employer. Will I stay at my job long enough to get the bonus?
If I give notice that I'm leaving before Dec 28 they will very likely not pay it.
If they decrease my bonus to 50% or less of last year's (e.g. to 0) I will consider that not getting the bonus. This could happen if I'm bad enough at my work.
They can choose any non-negative bonus amount but 95%+ of (people, year) reports that I've found have not decreased from the previous year. Last year I had a guaranteed first year bonus that was relatively normal.
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Why use play money?Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.