Eoghan's calibration
Grade: B-, Score: -2.68
Resolution probability
Probability after bet
Interpretation
- The green dot at (x%, y%) means when Eoghan bet YES at x%, the question resolved YES y% of the time on average.
- Perfect calibration would result in all green points being above the line, all red points below, and a score of zero.
- The score is the mean squared error for yes and no bets times -100.
- Each point is a bucket of bets weighted by bet amount with a maximum range of 10% (sell trades are excluded).
YES bets
NO bets
3 largest bets for each bucket
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
- Will the 2023 UCI Road World Championships Elite Women's Road Race be won by a solo attack?YESṀ413
- Will Jonas Vingegaard retain the yellow jersey after Stage 10 of the 2023 Tour de France?YESṀ100
- Will any classification leader have a special paint job on their bike on Stage 5 of the 2023 Tour de France?YESṀ100
90%
95%
99%
- Will the 2023 UCI Road World Championships Elite Men's Road Race be won by a solo attack?YESṀ5,000
- Will the 2023 UCI Road World Championships Elite Men's Road Race be won by a solo attack?YESṀ5,000
- Will a non-European rider finish in the top 10 of the 2023 UCI Road World Championships Elite Men's Road Race?YESṀ5,000