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Clarification:
Market resolves if TSLA reaches >$275 ($275.01+) at any point before 8pm EST on 8/8 - this includes After Market but not Overnight trading.
For After Market trading information: After-Hours Trading: How It Works, Advantages, Risks, Example (investopedia.com)
Related questions
Maybe Tesla is going to start using lidar again for their robotaxis?
https://www.theverge.com/2024/6/20/24182672/heres-a-tesla-model-y-with-roof-mounted-lidar-sensors
Is there much of a case for YES here? Tesla has failed to come out with many products recently. What they have released (Cybertruck) doesn't seem very successful. They've laid off a lot of their staff. They keep poaching people/resources for Musk's other endeavors, and now they need to divert about $50 billion to Musk. (I don't know the details of how that will happen, but I can't imagine it being good for Tesla.)
August 8 is coming in two months. I don't see much that could happen which would drastically change Tesla's situation or their stock price.
>"divert about $50 billion to Musk. (I don't know the details of how that will happen,"
The shares have already been issued to Musk (he cannot sell them within 5 years of issue). Anyway clearly no resources to divert to Musk needed. The vote may help Musk appeal but that vote makes little difference. If Musk settled for less than the full $56billion (unlikely to happen soon I think) then there would be less shares in total so the market capitalisation would be divided between fewer shares making each share worth more but I think this is unlikely to happen as soon as 8 Aug. Anyway it has to go back to court and usually that takes time. There was no increase in value when the judgement was made so I don't think the market is expecting any reduction in shares.
Also $56B is not enough. That is about 10% of market capitalisation. Musk is not going to settle for nothing. Even if he did that would only increase share value from $184 to $202 but not going to happen and not by 8 Aug.
Robotaxi reveal event is on 8 Aug but it isn't clear to me what time this will be. If it is after 8pm then what is revealed cannot affect share price in time for this market but it could be earlier. Also perhaps the expectations of what will be revealed will have some effect on share prices before the market closes. Perhaps the hype does it more than the reveal?
https://insideevs.com/news/723266/tesla-fsd-can-detect-pedestrans-emergency-vehicles/amp/
"FSD’s latest 12.4.1 version tries to improve the existing system, but misses the mark by a big margin, according to early reports from a handful of beta testers who have access to it."
https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1776351450542768368
If the robotaxi announcement is actually impressive, I suppose this could happen.
But based on Elon's track record of failed predictions, I doubt it.
Longer term prediction:
Tesla’s stock should hit $2,600 in five years, says Cathie Wood’s Ark Invest - MarketWatch
He is just messing around throwing shit at the wall until he gets his payday and Texas move.
https://qz.com/video-of-tesla-s-new-humanoid-robot-leaves-humans-less-1851462279
@MolbyDick Robotaxis would be great if they actually work, but Elon has been promising them every year for at least five years now.
k.
jim, that's a good point tbh. on reflection it's the same kind of thing