If Trump gets enough votes to win the nomination and is also convicted, will he still be the candidate on election day?
15
37
290
Nov 5
90%
chance

Trump's first criminal trial is scheduled for March 4, the day before Super Tuesday. So by the time he is convicted, the primaries will be mostly over.

It seems very plausible that Trump will have enough votes to win the nomination, and then be convicted of a crime before the Republican National Convention. Technically this doesn't necessarily disqualify him, but it's possible that the delegates might choose not to nominate him, or he might withdraw, or be disqualified in some other way, or die.

This market resolves NA if Trump does not secure enough votes to win the nomination, or if he is not convicted of any crime before the election.

Resolves YES if he wins the nomination, is convicted, and remains the Republican candidate on election day.

Resolves NO if he wins the nomination, is convicted, but is NOT the Republican candidate in election day for any reason.

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