https://news.uq.edu.au/2026-09-big-supernova-dataset-challenges-dark-energy-theory

Resolution criteria

This market will resolve to YES if, by December 31, 2030, at 11:59 PM UTC, a major international astrophysics or cosmology collaboration (such as DESI, Euclid, the Vera C. Rubin Observatory, or the Nancy Grace Roman Space Telescope) formally publishes or announces a discovery confirming that dark energy is time-dependent (also referred to as "dynamical", "evolving", or "time-varying" dark energy).

For the purposes of this market, "proved" is defined as meeting the standard scientific threshold for a discovery in physics: a statistical significance of at least 5 sigma ($5\sigma$).

Alternatively, the market will resolve to YES if a major scientific body (such as the International Astronomical Union) officially recognizes the proof of time-dependent dark energy by the cutoff date, or if there is a clear consensus in peer-reviewed literature (such as Nature, Science, or Physical Review Letters) that a time-varying equation of state for dark energy has been definitively established.

If no such discovery is officially confirmed or widely recognized at the $5\sigma$ level (or equivalent consensus) by the cutoff date, the market will resolve to NO.

Background

The standard model of cosmology ($\Lambda$CDM) treats dark energy as a cosmological constant ($\Lambda$), meaning its energy density remains completely constant over time. However, cosmological data releases from the Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument (DESI) and other probes have shown tentative hints that dark energy may actually change or weaken as the universe ages.

These early results carry a statistical significance ranging from roughly $2.8\sigma$ to $4.2\sigma$, which is highly intriguing but remains short of the rigorous $5\sigma$ "gold standard" required to declare a definitive discovery. Ongoing and future observation campaigns by DESI, Euclid, and the Vera C. Rubin Observatory are expected to gather enough precision data by 2030 to either rule out these fluctuations or push the measurements past the $5\sigma$ threshold.

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