Resolution criteria

This market resolves to the total number of Super Heavy Booster (first stage) Raptor 3 engines that fail to ignite at liftoff or prematurely cut off during ascent, prior to the start of the planned Most Engines Cut Off (MECO) sequence during Starship Test Flight 14.

The primary source of truth will be the official SpaceX webcast telemetry graphic (streamed live on X @SpaceX and archived on the SpaceX Launches page).

Specific Rules:

• MECO Definition: MECO (Most Engines Cut Off) refers to the planned shutdown of 30 of the 33 booster engines to allow for the hot-staging maneuver (typically occurring around T+2 minutes 40 seconds). Engines that shut down as a planned part of this MECO sequence do not count toward the failure total.

• Engine-Out Count: Any engine represented as inactive (red, dimmed, or unlit) on the circular 33-engine booster telemetry graphic immediately prior to the start of the MECO sequence will count toward the total. This includes both engines that fail to ignite at liftoff and those that shut down prematurely during ascent.

• Catastrophic Failure: If the Super Heavy booster experiences a Rapid Unscheduled Disassembly (RUD) or other catastrophic failure before reaching MECO, the market will resolve based on the number of inactive engines shown on the final readable telemetry frame prior to the failure.

• Telemetry Discrepancies: If the webcast telemetry is missing, unclear, or contradicts official reports, the market will resolve based on SpaceX's official post-flight mission review, or secondarily, a consensus among leading aerospace reporting outlets such as NASASpaceflight.

Background

Starship Test Flight 14 (IFT-14) is scheduled for Q3 2026 and is slated to use Booster 21 and Ship 41, both representing SpaceX’s upgraded Block 3 (V3) design featuring Raptor 3 engines.

During the preceding Flight 13 on July 24, 2026, the Super Heavy Booster (Booster 20) successfully fired all 33 Raptor 3 engines during ascent but experienced multiple engine dropouts during its landing burn, leading to a hard splashdown in the Gulf of Mexico. Flight 14's primary goals are expected to include achieving a full orbital trajectory for the upper stage, deploying payloads, and potentially attempting the first-ever catch of the Starship upper stage back at the launch tower.

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