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MANIFOLD
What will happen to this market? [Add responses]
25
Ṁ970Ṁ7.2k
resolved Sep 23
Resolved
YES
It will have 10+ options added by someone other than the market creator
Resolved
YES
It will have 5+ options added by someone other than the market creator
Resolved
YES
It will have 15+ options
Resolved
YES
it will have 12+ options
Resolved
YES
At least one option resolves to NO including all options added before this one
Resolved
YES
@Cactus posts any comment on the market at any time
Resolved
N/A
resolves N/A on April 5th, 2026
Resolved
NO
It will get 1 new unique trader per week for its first 10 weeks
Resolved
NO
It will get 1 unique trader per week for its first 20 weeks
Resolved
NO
It will get 1 unique trader per week for 1 year
Resolved
NO
It will get 1 unique trader per week for 2 years
Resolved
NO
It will get 100 unique traders by 2025
Resolved
NO
It will get 1000 unique traders by 2025
Resolved
NO
It will have 100+ options added by someone other than the market creator
Resolved
NO
More responses will resolve YES than NO before 2025
Resolved
NO
10+ responses resolve NO before 2025
Resolved
NO
10+ responses resolve YES before 2025
Resolved
NO
It will become a Krantz mechanism (https://manifold.markets/Krantz/krantz-mechanism-demonstration)
Resolved
NO
The majority (>50%) of options other than this one resolve to YES
Resolved
NO
It will have 420+ options

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@Chumchulum Okay, the trade ledger and renaming history of this are all sorts of screwed up. Please tell me what's going on here, because I don't like what I'm seeing.

@Cactus @Chumchulum I see you two are the only ones who traded on this before it was renamed around. Are we cool with this actually resolving N/A? I see the conversation below, and I just want to confirm the story is straight.

@Chumchulum Overall, I will say it's bad practice to rename markets after people have traded on them if it changes the nature of what is being traded on. Please don't do this again.

But we're here now. I think N/A is the best verdict here. I'm giving you and @Cactus a final opportunity to speak. I will resolve this N/A after at least 48 hours unless I hear anything of note.

The deed is done.

@mods pls resolve or better still n/a it

No reason to N/A the options that are clear, though. @mods

@Paul pls resolve

@ChrisMillsc5f7 As @Paul seems to be inactive, it's probably appropriate to tag @mods here.

Right?

bought Ṁ50 YES

@Cactus seems I can just do this

opened a Ṁ25 YES at 60% order

@Cactus May I edit my option, because noone else has traded on it?

@Cactus I will anyway, as only you and I have traded on it and we are still within the 1-hour window to edit an option's title.

@- -mods what do you think of this shenanigan? I feel it cannot be allowed. The original text of the answer was that all of @Cactus answers would resolve to NO. Then changed to something totally different.

EDIT: we have resolved our dispute amicably below.

filled a Ṁ1 YES at 11% order

@Cactus I am not a mod, but I think we are in a meta-market, an asset class known for shenanigans, and that the market can be changed to unranked profits as many shenanigan-prone similar markets have.

I did not account when creating my option that you could invalidate the option by making a new option fulfilled only by a comment in the market, and since only we two had traded on either, I felt that it was fair within the 1 hour. This is not fraud. This is my attempt to be playful.

@Chumchulum I do not know of any scenario where changing the resolution criteria to a completely unrelated thing is allowed, even within 1hr, when another trader is present on the answer.

@Cactus This is a non-predictive metamarket where only you and I have traded on the two options of concern, with shenanigans already taking place that simply did not involve editing an option during the 1 hour that one may

EDIT: we have resolved our dispute amicably below.

@Chumchulum let's just leave it to mods to decide then. will accept whatever conclusion they come to.

@Cactus A compromise can either be to N/A my option (to restore your M spent on it) or to make the market unranked (with @Paul's permission) to let what happened happened and have it not hurt our Leagues. I would like to have even more shenanigans, if you kindly accept.

@Chumchulum thank you, I accept your proposal to N/A your option. I think you may rename it to something like "resolves N/A" as we are the only traders and it does not affect other existing answers.

@Cactus Can I change it to "resolves N/A in 1 month" so that we (I) can gamble on it as a mystery option before my and all profits from it are clawed back when it N/As? As we are not the only traders, we are just the only ones present on this market today.

@Chumchulum I would take some unrealized loss this way, if you send me like M10 interest I'd be happy to register the loss and let you bet it as you please until its eventual NA resolution.

@Cactus Signed. Mods while you are here, please resolve Cactus' comment option.

@Paul if you are still active, please note that the intention of @Chumchulum, which I assume is in good faith here, is to have his option resolve to NA, not to resolve it to NO in the event that it does not resolve to NA on the specified date.

Note that I said he may bet it as he pleases, I did not necessarily honor his request to rename to his exact requested title. This was done intentionally to prevent potential bad faith attempts. I extend the good faith here as I do not intend for him to lose mana on this answer.

@Cactus @Chumchulum Holy hell.