
Will ChatGPT/GPT-4 Be Able To Render a Single Line Drawing of a Cat by end of June 2024?
5
90Ṁ78resolved Dec 21
Resolved
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Using the following prompt:
Use matplotlib to render a single line drawing of a cat
I recieved the code:
import matplotlib.pyplot as plt
# Define the cat's shape using x and y coordinates
x = [3, 3, 5, 7, 9, 11, 11, 10, 11, 12, 13, 15, 17, 19, 19, 17, 15, 13, 12, 11, 10, 11, 9, 7, 5]
y = [4, 8, 10, 12, 10, 8, 4, 6, 4, 6, 4, 6, 8, 6, 4, 6, 8, 10, 12, 10, 12, 14, 12, 10, 8]
fig, ax = plt.subplots()
# Plot the cat's shape as a single line
ax.plot(x, y, lw=2, color='black', marker='o', markersize=4, markerfacecolor='red')
# Set plot properties
ax.set_aspect('equal')
ax.set_axis_off()
# Display the plot
plt.show()
Which renders as:

Ahhhh! No.
Using the same conditions as above, will ChatGPT be able to render a drawing of a cat by the end of June 2024? Resolves YES if so, otherwise NO.
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Well, it's better than yours....still gonna have to say this probably won't happen. (also had to fix a bug in the code because it thought circles have an argument called "aspect," they don't in the version I was on)
How does this resolve if a new product that replaces ChatGPT but is not called ChatGPT is released?
Presumably, based on whether the model of it is gpt-4. Since it says gpt-4 in the title. Even if that happens, doubtful that GPT-4 will be inaccessible.
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
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