Preface:
Please read the preface for this type of market and other similar third-party validated AI markets here.
Third-Party Validated, Predictive Markets: AI Theme
Market Description
Supply chain and its effect on inflation have been major news and conversational topics since around 2021, so it's quite natural to wonder how A.I. may help humans with our physical supply chain issues.
https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?date=today%205-y&geo=US&q=%2Fm%2F019h6j,%2Fm%2F09jx2&hl=en
80% of the world's cargo is transported by ocean. Congested ports can become a massive problem because they disrupt supply chains. Port congestion means that ships arrive at the port and cannot load or unload, as the terminal is already full. So, they can only queue up and wait for their turn to get a spot at the port.
This leaderboard challenge by Hugging Face Spaces attempted to help address the problem in one narrow way: https://huggingface.co/spaces/competitions/ship-detection
Market Resolution Criteria
Will the public leaderboard for the above challenge, https://huggingface.co/spaces/competitions/ship-detection have a score which is greater than 0.98 on the public leaderboard at the time of authoring this market?
At the time of authoring this market, the greatest score, which can be found by navigating to, "Leaderboard" in the above list is:
rank 1, name eugene123tw, public score 0.9204, date 2023-03-22 15:10:19
Note, the stated score notation is mAP, which can be read about here: https://datascience.stackexchange.com/questions/16797/what-does-the-notation-map-5-95-mean
If a score registers at or above 0.98, this market resolves YES, otherwise NO.
Mar 30, 2:00pm: Will A.I. Get, "Scarily Better at Helping To Resolve Shipping Supply Chain Issues," by the End of 2024? โ Will A.I. Get, "Scarily Better at Helping To Resolve Shipping Supply Chain Issues," by the End of 2024? (Re:HuggingFace)
Related questions
๐ Top traders
| # | Name | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | แน230 | |
| 2 | แน180 | |
| 3 | แน84 | |
| 4 | แน65 | |
| 5 | แน46 |
2024 version of this market: https://manifold.markets/PatrickDelaney/-will-ai-get-scarily-better-at-help
It looks like the competition closed and they awarded first place to lqdisme with a score of 0.9037.
https://huggingface.co/spaces/competitions/ship-detection/discussions/22
@RobertCousineau Sounds like this will probably resolve no. That being said, I won't do so until after Dec 31st for fairness sake. E.g. if by any chance they open it up, or there is another entry, etc.
I guess idg the ship thing. It's not like not knowing where they are is the problem:
https://www.marinetraffic.com/en/ais/home/centerx:-12.0/centery:25.0/zoom:4
What happened with covid is pretty simple: service trade shut down in the US, so people spent their free Trump money on cheap defective Chinese shit instead that caused a surge in import volume (>25% increase in TEUs in LA/LB). Then the increase in lead time and lead time variability caused companies to increase safety stock levels/hoard, which continued the problems long after the initial demand spike.
The solution to this is to stop having pandemics, or more to the point, stop shutting down the economy over a cold.
@AlQuinn respectfully, that's irrelevant for what this market is getting at please place a bet or just create a market on that issue