Preface / Inspiration: There are a lot of questions on Manifold about whether or not we'll see sentience, general A.I., and a lot of other nonsense and faith-based questions which rely on the market maker's interpretation and often close at some far distant point in the future when a lot of us will be dead. This is an effort to create meaningful bets on important A.I. questions which are referenced by a third party.
Market Description:
TruthfulQA
Paper for TruthfulQA: https://arxiv.org/abs/2109.07958
Resolution Criteria:
On the following Leaderboard:
https://paperswithcode.com/sota/question-answering-on-truthfulqa
Will a submission be greater than 1.3X the top submission for MC1 as of 20230616 by the end of 2023?
This would mean YES must be > (1.3)*(0.295) = 0.3835
🏅 Top traders
| # | Name | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ55 | |
| 2 | Ṁ22 | |
| 3 | Ṁ6 | |
| 4 | Ṁ5 | |
| 5 | Ṁ1 |
For those interested in the model that beat the above proposed metric:
https://arxiv.org/pdf/2306.03341v2.pdf
This may or may not affect the possible value of final precision of some of my other AI markets. Again, I will only resolve according to third party metrics except in some extreme extenuating circumstances. I will not bet in my markets anymore (unless I somehow already did previously and forgot to sell, in which case I will sell out of my position).
