🐕 Will A.I. Be Able to Avoid Misconceptions Significantly Better by the End of 2023?
13
270Ṁ208
resolved Jul 19
Resolved
YES

Preface / Inspiration: There are a lot of questions on Manifold about whether or not we'll see sentience, general A.I., and a lot of other nonsense and faith-based questions which rely on the market maker's interpretation and often close at some far distant point in the future when a lot of us will be dead. This is an effort to create meaningful bets on important A.I. questions which are referenced by a third party.

Market Description:

TruthfulQA

Paper for TruthfulQA: https://arxiv.org/abs/2109.07958

Resolution Criteria:

On the following Leaderboard:

https://paperswithcode.com/sota/question-answering-on-truthfulqa

Will a submission be greater than 1.3X the top submission for MC1 as of 20230616 by the end of 2023?

This would mean YES must be > (1.3)*(0.295) = 0.3835

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