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MANIFOLD
How Quickly Will the Manifest.is Early Tickets Sell Out?
16
Ṁ770Ṁ19k
resolved Mar 5
100%99.9%
Between 24 Hours and 1 Week
0.0%
Effectively Instantly (E.g. within seconds or minutes)
0.0%
Between Instantly and 1 Hour
0.0%
Between 1 Hour and 24 Hours
0.0%
Between 1 Week and 1 Month
0.0%Other

Conditional on Manifest.is listing early tickets, often known as, "early bird tickets," which will essentially be an early release of tickets, either in the form of discounted tickets, early access tickets in a smaller capacity of the entire attendance, a discount code, or other allotment of scarcity at initial launch...

How quickly will those tickets sell out?

This will have to be adjudicated by a conference organizer hopefully confirming to us how long it took for the tickets to sell out, or from our observation of a public website and how long said discount code or early bird ticket remained open.

I'm presuming this will resolve much earlier than June 1st but setting that date for now.

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OK, it appears they sold out at around 3AM PST today, Tuesday March 5th, after having been released on Friday at 8PM PST, so that was under 80 hours! This bodes super well for Manifest 2024!

bought Ṁ2,000 YES

They are at 29 remaining now.

Assuming they sell out linearly at the same rate, they will need about 13 more hours to sell out, but there are 5 hours left before 8PM PST to hit that first 24 hour box. That being said, I wonder if there will be a surge due to the price competition.

bought Ṁ500 NO

@NcyRocks 52 remain after 7 hours at 3am PST

@PatrickDelaney I doubt it’ll come down to it, but it’s worth noting that I probably posted that comment some amount of hours after they went live

@NcyRocks imo starting around when you posted, like 7pm PST, makes sense. They had been on the website for a couple of hours, but we had purposefully not "launched", i.e. we hadn't announced it anywhere and were still making small changes, and approximately nobody noticed before you. At least nobody bought tickets until 7 when we sent the email.

(The tickets going up on the website at 4pm was actually kind of an accident—we knew it was possible and not a big deal, but not what we were intending to do. Saul was trying to publish something else to the site, and it published the changes I'd made as well.)

@NcyRocks I searched, "tickets" on the Manifold discord and these came up. This tells me they were not available at 7PM CST, but we could round back to 10PM CST, which would be 8PM PST.

So as of now, at 11:20 PST, there are about 8 hours, 40 minutes remaining to sell out to get into that 24 hour bucket.