Resolution criteria

This market resolves to YES if Derek Thompson formally announces a campaign for any elected public office (federal, state, or local) on or before December 31, 2030. Otherwise, it resolves to NO.

A "formal announcement" is defined as an official declaration by Derek Thompson, a filing with an electoral commission, or a verifiable campaign website launch indicating a run for office. If he holds office by election, or is a declared candidate by the resolution date, the market resolves to YES.

Background

Derek Thompson (born 1986) is an American journalist, podcaster, and author who was a staff writer at The Atlantic from 2009 until mid-2025, when he left to write independently on Substack . He remains a contributing writer at the magazine.

He’s best known for a few things:

Books: He co-authored Abundance with Ezra Klein, which became a #1 New York Times bestseller . His earlier book Hit Makers: How to Succeed in an Age of Distraction was a national bestseller translated into 13 languages .

Podcast: He hosts the Plain English podcast on The Ringer Podcast Network .

Background: He graduated from Northwestern University in 2008 with a triple major in journalism, political science, and legal studies . His writing focuses on economics, technology, labor, media, and culture.

His general thesis lately centers on what he and Klein call “abundance” — the idea that to have the future we want, we need to build and invent more of what we need .