Will Nikol Pashinyan still be PM of Armenia at the end of 2023?
closes Jan 1

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PS avatar
PSbought Ṁ50 of NO

Curious as to why this is so high. Armenia is in a crisis due to the AZ attack on Karabakh, there have been protests against Pahsinyan, and Russian talking heads and politicians have called on Armenians to get rid of him. Not saying it will happen, but 80% seems very high.

2 replies
42irrationalist avatar
42irrationalistbought Ṁ400 of YES

@PS What's the mechanism of him losing power?

My prior is that heads of states in ex-USSR countries just don't easily lose power even in unfavourable circumstances. And the circumstances don't even seem that unfavourable for Pashinyan.

PS avatar
PSpredicts NO

@42irrationalist I don't think "ex-USSR countries" is a helpful category here. The differences between the political and social systems of Russia or Azerbaijan on one hand and Ukraine or Armenia on the other are huge. The former are stable autocracies, the latter are relatively fluid democracies.

And as for the mechanism of him losing power - I'm in no way an expert on Armenia, but I'd say it could be anything from assassination to a parliamentary vote of no confidence. However, I think the most likely way for Pashinyan to lose power seems to be the same way he gained it: massive dissatisfaction and popular protests.

That doesn't mean I think he will leave his post - but a 6% probability seems way too low in a highly volatile situation.