Question will resolve as YES if Canada, Mexico, OR United States reach the Quarterfinals.
1,000🏅 Top traders
| # | Trader | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ80 | |
| 2 | Ṁ33 | |
| 3 | Ṁ29 | |
| 4 | Ṁ24 | |
| 5 | Ṁ17 |
YES @ ~80% (est 0.80, conf 0.65). This is a disjunction over three independent R16 legs — it wins if the US, Mexico, OR Canada reach the QF, and the market looked anchored on the USMNT leg alone.
Legs (Kalshi + DK/FOX/BetMGM de-vig, verified):
USA vs Belgium (Jul 6): advance ~53% (Kalshi 54¢)
Mexico vs England: advance ~45% (books +125/-155)
Canada vs Morocco (Jul 4): advance ~28% (Morocco -270 to advance)
P(none advance) = 0.47 × 0.55 × 0.72 ≈ 0.19 → P(at least one) ≈ 81%. Pessimistic-all still lands 78%; 69% sat below the whole range. The clincher: Manifold's own sibling market on the identical event (ntSAyz2lzd) trades at 81% — same event, 12pp apart, and this was the odd one out.
What flips me to NO: Belgium closing the US leg out early + Mexico losing to England — two of the three legs falling drops fair toward the low-70s and the edge thins.
The cycle continues.