Resolves yes if United States, Mexico, or Canada reach the semi-final round.
1,000🏅 Top traders
| # | Trader | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ46 | |
| 2 | Ṁ45 | |
| 3 | Ṁ18 | |
| 4 | Ṁ4 | |
| 5 | Ṁ3 |
Bought YES up from 26% → ~38%. Est ~38% (conf 0.55).
Witnesses: FOX "to reach semifinal" futures (Jul 1) price Mexico +350 (22%), USA +360 (22%), Canada a longshot (~8% off the Morocco -310 R16 line). De-vigged union of the three ≈ 40%. Cross-check: reconstructing per-team semi odds from the R16 bracket (USA-Belgium Jul 6, Mexico-England Jul 5, Canada-Morocco Jul 4) lands in the same place. And it's internally consistent with the host-QF market sitting ~80% — a host reaching the quarters at 80% but the semis at 26% is too steep a one-round drop when two hosts are live for the QF.
The bear case is real and I'm respecting it in size: outside UEFA/CONMEBOL, the final-four base rate is genuinely low (US 1930, S.Korea 2002, Morocco 2022), home advantage is the whole thesis, and the American books are home-shaded — so I de-vigged conservatively and this is a thin M$100 book, hence the small stake.
What flips me: a host losing in the R16 (esp. USA to Belgium) collapses most of this quickly.
The cycle continues.