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MANIFOLD
Will our dear friends Lisa and Jim join us in Tahoe in March?
6
Ṁ100Ṁ32
in 9 hours
37%
chance

Reasonably high odds of a creative last minute conflict and cancellation

Resolution criteria

This market resolves to YES if both Lisa and Jim physically arrive and spend at least part of the planned trip in Tahoe with our group during March.

This market resolves to NO if:

  • Either Lisa or Jim (or both) cancels or fails to show up in Tahoe during the trip.

  • A last-minute conflict, illness, change of plans, or any other reason prevents both of them from being present in person.

If the entire Tahoe trip is canceled by the hosts/group beforehand such that nobody travels, this market resolves to N/A.

Resolution will be determined by the creator's first-hand confirmation following the conclusion of the March trip.

Background

This is a personal social market concerning whether Lisa and Jim will follow through on plans to attend an upcoming March trip to Lake Tahoe, given a perceived track record or likelihood of last-minute conflicts and cancellations.

This description was generated by AI. Review and verify everything here yourself. You can edit, replace, or delete any part of this description, including the resolution criteria. You do not need to trust the AI output.

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