A multiple choice market based on the Presidential election would be interesting:

DEM wins & deal approved

DEM wins & deal scuttled

GOP wins & deal approved

GOP wins & deal scuttled

Nippon Steel sees path toward U.S. Steel deal after November election

https://asia.nikkei.com/Business/Business-deals/Nippon-Steel-sees-path-toward-U.S.-Steel-deal-after-November-election

The plan to acquire U.S. Steel is at a stalemate. It was announced in December and approved by U.S. Steel shareholders in April, and will be completed if it passes reviews by the Committee on Foreign Investment in the United States and the U.S. Department of Justice. But those reviews have dragged, and United Steelworkers (USW) union leaders oppose the plan.

Union opposition led U.S. President Joe Biden to express caution on the deal. Former President Donald Trump is hoping to shore up union support by opposing the acquisition, and Biden, who has long been a staunch supporter of labor, needs to consider his base.

This clearly is not happening before the election, let alone by the end of June.