The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) announced its first “energy shot” in April 2021, which aims to drive the costs of clean hydrogen down from about $5 per kilogram today to $1 per kilogram by 2030. The Hydrogen Shot initiative seeks to reduce the cost of clean hydrogen by 80% to $1 per kilogram in one decade. If the Hydrogen Shot goals are achieved, scenarios show the opportunity for at least a 5-fold increase in clean hydrogen use. A U.S. industry estimate shows the potential for 16% carbon dioxide emission reduction by 2050 as well as $140 billion in revenues and 700,000 jobs by 2030.
This prediction market will resolve yes if a credible index of either US or global leveled renewable hydrogen prices to be at or below $1/kg by the end of 2030.
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PWC projects a 2x price reduction instead of the 5x required for this market to resolve "YES":
@jojo The Inflation Reduction Act includes a provision that effectively subsidizes green hydrogen production at $3/kg for the next 10 years, which is what makes me most optimistic. A quick look suggests they're handing out ~$20-$60 million in additional funding to green hydrogen initiatives each month, which seems quite helpful.