Is it true that Ukraine has shot down two Russian IL-76 transport planes?
48
14
resolved Mar 11
Resolved
NO
Ukraine claims to have shot down two Russian IL-7640 transport planes (see eg https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/policy/defense-national-security/two-russian-transport-planes-shot-down-around-kyiv-ukraine-says). So far I found "US officials" confirming this (https://www.timesofisrael.com/liveblog_entry/us-officials-say-2-russian-transport-planes-shot-down-over-ukraine/) but so far I haven't seen any independent confirmations besides that. After market close on March 9, I'll look for news and have a discussion with traders and friends. After that, if I believe that Ukraine shot down two Russian IL-76 transport planes on or before Feb 25, I'll resolve YES, if I'm unsure I'll resolve N/A, and otherwise I'll resolve NO. I won't put in a large amount of effort, so if you want to lower the chance of an N/A, please tell me where the confirmations/disconfirmations are! (I'll put in a larger amount of effort if this question sees a lot of activity, but I'll still aim to resolve shortly after March 9, rather than wait for more info.) If the situation is very clear before March 9, I'll resolve this early. Edge cases I can think of rn: - If the planes just crashed on their own, it's still YES as long as it happened in Ukrainian airspace - If the planes were misidentified, I'll resolve YES if the real planes were as big and important as IL-76s. Feb 26, 9:38pm: @Conner Gagliano, can you tell me where you saw the US Department of Defense confirmed this? The only thing I can find so far is https://www.defense.gov/News/Transcripts/Transcript/Article/2947562/senior-defense-official-holds-an-off-camera-press-briefing/ which very much does not confirm it. (To be clear, if the US Department of Defense confirms is, that's not an instant YES, I would first ask around to get a general sense of whether US Department is generally truthful even in situations where false propaganda would be very effective.) Feb 26, 9:51pm: @ConnerGagliano let's see if I can correctly ping you this time... Mar 1, 10:32pm: @WillWilson thank you for the tweet! @ConnerGagliano: Sorry for the delay (I was actually about to answer when Will posted their reply!). The relevant part of the of the AP News page you linked appears to be identical to https://www.timesofisrael.com/liveblog_entry/us-officials-say-2-russian-transport-planes-shot-down-over-ukraine/ , which I linked when I created the question. Just seeing this same piece of information again will not make me resolve YES. To be clear, I don't think "The US Department of Defense" and " two American officials with direct knowledge of conditions on the ground in Ukraine" are equivalent at all. In the press briefing transcript I linked, the DOD official says "On the aircraft, it's - we can't confirm, we can't deny it. And, again, we're going to be careful here about what level of tactical detail that we get into. Because I want to be able to make sure we can do it confidently."
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bought Ṁ50 of NO
Seems extremely unlikely that if this had really happened we wouldn’t have had a major media push around it from the Ukrainian government by now. Instead we’ve had… nothing since those first few rumors.
bought Ṁ50 of NO
Has the DoD made any such statement though? The link you provided has a journalist claiming it from unnamed sources. Anyway given that the US is currently engaged in a massive information warfare operation, an official statement would not be definitive for me (though it would move me in the direction of yes). In fact given that information warfare operation don’t you think that if they had the evidence you say, they *would* have produced it by now? The link I provided has an expert on analyzing military events from photos saying that this would be easy to spot from a photo. Is the theory that both planes went down over Russian controlled areas? On the first nights of the invasion before they controlled much area? Doesn’t seem likely. How about satellite photos? Does Planet Labs or the like have any satellites that go over Ukraine? The more days pass without any evidence of this, the less likely I think it is. In fact if I had more M$ I would buy a ton more “No” because the price is crazy high right now.
sold Ṁ97 of YES
I honestly don't think photographic evidence should be needed for it. The Russians will never admit it and photographic evidence of such things are difficult to get in a prompt manner in wartime. NATO and the US has many air assets such as AWACS and drones in the area, so they would have seen if it went down. I would see the US DOD as credible on this as they generally do not lie about such events.
bought Ṁ200 of NO
Rob Lee (one of the best analysts of OSINT and pro-America/anti-Russia) says there’s no photographic evidence anywhere to be seen, which he considers to be negative evidence as this would be hard to hide: https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1498468609701474309
bought Ṁ1 of YES
The AP cited two US officials with direct knowledge of conditions on the ground in Ukraine in saying that they were shot down. https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-business-europe-united-nations-kyiv-6ccba0905f1871992b93712d3585f548
sold Ṁ5 of YES
Ukraine's department of defense made the claim afaict, maybe that's the confusion.
bought Ṁ1 of YES
Reposting Ophelia's question as a comment: @ConnerGagliano can you tell us where you saw the US Department of Defense confirmed this? (unfortunately description edits don't ping all commenters, atm)
bought Ṁ100 of YES
Shouldn't this be resolved as yes. The US Department of Defense confirmed it.

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