Is it true that Ukraine has shot down two Russian IL-76 transport planes?
48
100Ṁ5999
resolved Mar 11
Resolved
NO
Ukraine claims to have shot down two Russian IL-7640 transport planes (see eg https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/policy/defense-national-security/two-russian-transport-planes-shot-down-around-kyiv-ukraine-says). So far I found "US officials" confirming this (https://www.timesofisrael.com/liveblog_entry/us-officials-say-2-russian-transport-planes-shot-down-over-ukraine/) but so far I haven't seen any independent confirmations besides that. After market close on March 9, I'll look for news and have a discussion with traders and friends. After that, if I believe that Ukraine shot down two Russian IL-76 transport planes on or before Feb 25, I'll resolve YES, if I'm unsure I'll resolve N/A, and otherwise I'll resolve NO. I won't put in a large amount of effort, so if you want to lower the chance of an N/A, please tell me where the confirmations/disconfirmations are! (I'll put in a larger amount of effort if this question sees a lot of activity, but I'll still aim to resolve shortly after March 9, rather than wait for more info.) If the situation is very clear before March 9, I'll resolve this early. Edge cases I can think of rn: - If the planes just crashed on their own, it's still YES as long as it happened in Ukrainian airspace - If the planes were misidentified, I'll resolve YES if the real planes were as big and important as IL-76s. Feb 26, 9:38pm: @Conner Gagliano, can you tell me where you saw the US Department of Defense confirmed this? The only thing I can find so far is https://www.defense.gov/News/Transcripts/Transcript/Article/2947562/senior-defense-official-holds-an-off-camera-press-briefing/ which very much does not confirm it. (To be clear, if the US Department of Defense confirms is, that's not an instant YES, I would first ask around to get a general sense of whether US Department is generally truthful even in situations where false propaganda would be very effective.) Feb 26, 9:51pm: @ConnerGagliano let's see if I can correctly ping you this time... Mar 1, 10:32pm: @WillWilson thank you for the tweet! @ConnerGagliano: Sorry for the delay (I was actually about to answer when Will posted their reply!). The relevant part of the of the AP News page you linked appears to be identical to https://www.timesofisrael.com/liveblog_entry/us-officials-say-2-russian-transport-planes-shot-down-over-ukraine/ , which I linked when I created the question. Just seeing this same piece of information again will not make me resolve YES. To be clear, I don't think "The US Department of Defense" and " two American officials with direct knowledge of conditions on the ground in Ukraine" are equivalent at all. In the press briefing transcript I linked, the DOD official says "On the aircraft, it's - we can't confirm, we can't deny it. And, again, we're going to be careful here about what level of tactical detail that we get into. Because I want to be able to make sure we can do it confidently."
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