![](/_next/image?url=https%3A%2F%2Fstorage.googleapis.com%2Fmantic-markets.appspot.com%2Fcontract-images%2FOnurcanYasar%252F5ee030c9d014.jpg&w=3840&q=75)
AI doom = end of positive trajectory of human welfare because of AI
Time line = forever
Related questions
"AI doom" isn't defined here as being caused by AI. A large volcano eruption might extinct humanity...
and "forever", the sun going supernova has a good chance of killing everyone too. And past that, what about after every star dies?
So chance of "AI doom" seems really high. Like "provisionally 90%" and I might be persuaded to "1-10^-6".
@Mira It is delusional to think human beings will be around, let alone on a positive trajectory, forever. Is there a catch? I don’t get it.
Forever as in until the heat death of the universe?
At 10%, no, it's not delusional. One could reasonably argue between 1%, 5%, 10%, 20%, 50%, 90%. All of those have the common property of "yikes that's far too high for our current courses of action, we need to do something about this!".
It would be ridiculous to put the probability close enough to zero that it suggests taking no action to improve it.