"AI doom" isn't defined here as being caused by AI. A large volcano eruption might extinct humanity...

and "forever", the sun going supernova has a good chance of killing everyone too. And past that, what about after every star dies?

So chance of "AI doom" seems really high. Like "provisionally 90%" and I might be persuaded to "1-10^-6".

@Mira It is delusional to think human beings will be around, let alone on a positive trajectory, forever. Is there a catch? I don’t get it.

@Mira Yeah I should have clarified it better, but Humans will suffer because of AI was meant.

@NicoDelon For sure like head death of universe will fuck our last remnants anyways

End of positive trajectory caused by AI?

Forever as in until the heat death of the universe?

At 10%, no, it's not delusional. One could reasonably argue between 1%, 5%, 10%, 20%, 50%, 90%. All of those have the common property of "yikes that's far too high for our current courses of action, we need to do something about this!".

It would be ridiculous to put the probability close enough to zero that it suggests taking no action to improve it.

Time line = forever

Yes, its a little bit delusional to claim that one knows the entire future and all the trajectories mankind will ever be a part of

@firstuserhere Interesting how about saying it’s 50/50 would it be delusional?

i think going a whole lot lower than 10% is pretty ridiculous, but i don't think 8% or so would be straight up delusional