Is it delusional to put AI doom at 10% likelihood or below? | Manifold

Is it delusional to put AI doom at 10% likelihood or below?

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Yes

No

AI doom = end of positive trajectory of human welfare because of AI

Time line = forever

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At the beginning of 2035, will Eliezer Yudkowsky still believe that AI doom is coming soon with high probability?

The probability of "extremely bad outcomes e.g., human extinction" from AGI will be >5% in next survey of AI experts

What will be the average P(doom) of AI researchers in 2025?

Will Eliezer's AI doom market have a higher P(doom) in the third quarter of 2026 than today's (2023-09-27) 21%?

Does an AI disaster kill at least 10,000 people before 2029?

Will AI cause a global catastrophe killing at least 10% of humans before 2100?

Will a misaligned AI kill 1% of the world population within any 12 month period before 2035?

Does an AI disaster kill at least 10,000,000 people before 2029?

Will AI kill >20% of the human population before 2030?

Will an AI Doomer turn to violence by the end of 2026?

Related questions

At the beginning of 2035, will Eliezer Yudkowsky still believe that AI doom is coming soon with high probability?

The probability of "extremely bad outcomes e.g., human extinction" from AGI will be >5% in next survey of AI experts

What will be the average P(doom) of AI researchers in 2025?

Will Eliezer's AI doom market have a higher P(doom) in the third quarter of 2026 than today's (2023-09-27) 21%?

Does an AI disaster kill at least 10,000 people before 2029?

Will AI cause a global catastrophe killing at least 10% of humans before 2100?

Will a misaligned AI kill 1% of the world population within any 12 month period before 2035?

Does an AI disaster kill at least 10,000,000 people before 2029?

Will AI kill >20% of the human population before 2030?

Will an AI Doomer turn to violence by the end of 2026?

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