Resolution criteria
This market will resolve to YES if there is at least one wildfire (forest, brush, or grass fire) in the United States that:
Ignites on July 4, 2026 (between 12:00 AM and 11:59 PM local time of the ignition location).
Burns at least 5 acres of wildland.
Is officially determined by a local, state, or federal fire agency (such as the U.S. Forest Service, Bureau of Land Management, state department of forestry, or local fire department) to have been caused by fireworks, pyrotechnics, or holiday celebrations.
If no such fire occurs, or if no fire meeting these criteria has its cause officially determined as fireworks/celebration by December 31, 2026, the market will resolve to NO.
Sources and Verification:
The primary source for verifying fire occurrences and official causes will be the National Interagency Fire Center (NIFC) databases (via InFORM / IRWIN) or official incident reports (e.g., via InciWeb).
Credible national or local news reports citing official statements from fire investigators, public safety officials, or government spokespeople will also be accepted as proof of cause.
Standard structural or vehicle fires caused by fireworks do not qualify unless the fire spreads to adjacent wildland and burns at least 5 acres of vegetation.
Background
July 4th celebrations in the United States historically see a sharp spike in human-caused wildfires due to the widespread use of fireworks coinciding with hot, dry mid-summer conditions. In 2026, persistent drought and high temperatures across major portions of the Western and Southern U.S. have led to heightened wildfire risks and local firework restrictions. According to the National Wildfire Coordinating Group (NWCG), "Fireworks" is an officially tracked general cause category for wildfire investigations. Because detailed origin and cause investigations can take weeks or months to finalize, the resolution window extends through the end of 2026 to allow authorities to release official determinations.
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