Resolution criteria

This market will resolve to YES if any currently serving United States Senator dies between the creation of this market and October 1, 2026, at 11:59 PM Eastern Time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to NO.

• Currently serving U.S. Senator: An individual who is an active, sworn member of the United States Senate at the time of their death. Former senators, senators-elect who have not yet been sworn in, and members of the House of Representatives do not qualify.

• Timing of death: The death must be officially confirmed to have occurred before October 1, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. If a death occurs prior to this deadline but is only publicly announced or confirmed after October 1, the market will still resolve to YES.

• Verification: Resolution will be determined by official U.S. Senate vacancy announcements (via senate.gov) or consensus reporting from major reputable news organizations (e.g., AP News, Reuters).

Background

The U.S. Senate has a historically high average age, with a median age of 64 at the start of the 119th Congress. Several sitting members are octogenarians or nonagenarians, including Chuck Grassley (92), Bernie Sanders (84), and Mitch McConnell (83).

Most recently, Senator Lindsey Graham (R-SC) passed away in office on July 11, 2026, at the age of 71. His passing marked the sixth death of a sitting member of the 119th Congress. This market tracks whether another active U.S. Senator will pass away before October 1, 2026.

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