Resolution criteria
Each answer option in this independent multiple-choice market represents a date threshold. An option will resolve to YES if Anthropic officially releases any model from the "Claude 6" family before the specified date in UTC, and NO otherwise.
"Claude 6" Family Release: This refers to the first official release (including general availability, developer beta, or limited-partner/preview access) of any model officially designated as part of the "Claude 6" generation (e.g., Claude 6 Sonnet, Claude 6 Opus, Claude 6 Haiku, Claude Fable 6, Claude Mythos 6, or a standalone "Claude 6").
Resolution Logic: If a release occurs, all options with a date after the release date will resolve to YES, and options with a date before or on the release date will resolve to NO. For example, if Claude 6 is released on September 15, 2026, "Before 9/1/2026" resolves to NO, while "Before 10/1/2026" and all subsequent options resolve to YES.
Date/Time: All thresholds refer to 00:00 UTC on the specified date. For example, "Before 10/1/2026" means prior to October 1, 2026, 00:00 UTC.
Sources: Resolution will be determined based on official announcements from:
Background
Anthropic has historically maintained a rapid deployment cadence. Following the rollouts of Claude 4 models (such as Opus 4.8) in early 2026, Anthropic launched its 5th-generation models, Claude Fable 5 and Claude Mythos 5, on June 9, 2026. This market tracks the timeline for the transition to the "Claude 6" generation.
Update 2026-06-14 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The "Before 3/1/2026" answer option has been resolved to N/A (cancelled), as it was created by mistake (typo intended to be 3/1/2027).
1,00094% chance by Feb 2027 interesting, we expect acceleration based on public info (e.g. compute purchases)?
Claude 1 (same day as GPT-4?): March 14th, 2023
Claude 2 (not really frontier, catching up): July 11th, 2023
—
Claude 3: March 4th, 2024
Claude 4: May 22nd, 2025
Claude 5: June 9th, 2026
14.5 months to 12.5 months
I’d naively expect the median around April 2027, but I understand compute build outs are still growing ~exponentially (the linear part of the logistic curve) until ~2028 and I guess the model size / pricing isn’t scaling much so we can expect a more regular release schedule e.g. OpenAI has a +0.1 bump every ~6 weeks, so GPT 6 should be like October 2026
idk