Resolution criteria
Each answer option in this independent multiple-choice market represents a date threshold. An option will resolve to YES if Anthropic officially releases any model from the "Claude 6" family before the specified date in UTC, and NO otherwise.
"Claude 6" Family Release: This refers to the first official release (including general availability, developer beta, or limited-partner/preview access) of any model officially designated as part of the "Claude 6" generation (e.g., Claude 6 Sonnet, Claude 6 Opus, Claude 6 Haiku, Claude Fable 6, Claude Mythos 6, or a standalone "Claude 6").
Resolution Logic: If a release occurs, all options with a date after the release date will resolve to YES, and options with a date before or on the release date will resolve to NO. For example, if Claude 6 is released on September 15, 2026, "Before 9/1/2026" resolves to NO, while "Before 10/1/2026" and all subsequent options resolve to YES.
Date/Time: All thresholds refer to 00:00 UTC on the specified date. For example, "Before 10/1/2026" means prior to October 1, 2026, 00:00 UTC.
Sources: Resolution will be determined based on official announcements from:
Background
Anthropic has historically maintained a rapid deployment cadence. Following the rollouts of Claude 4 models (such as Opus 4.8) in early 2026, Anthropic launched its 5th-generation models, Claude Fable 5 and Claude Mythos 5, on June 9, 2026. This market tracks the timeline for the transition to the "Claude 6" generation.
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