Will the documents found by the FBI include Top Secret information about nuclear weapons?
6
24
100
resolved Sep 22
Resolved
YES

Information must be classified as Top Secret and involve nuclear weaponry (foreign or domestic.) This will resolve to No if the FBI does not find Top Secret information about nuclear weapons held by Trump.

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predicted NO

Market cannot resolve until the FBI makes a statement, not illegal leaks by politically motivated hacks (unless the entire point was just to confirm your own biases in the first place 🤔)

predicted YES

@Gigacasting "I have a conspiracy theory" is not a valid reason to reject what's come out so far

predicted YES

@Gigacasting One of the folders in the FBI photo also had special classification specific to nuclear weapons information. It’s covered under a different statute so was easy to spot. So there is your primary source evidence.

@Gigacasting I don't think it's necessary to wait on official confirmation (that may never come) when we have a respected journalist specifically saying that the resolution criteria has been met.

Feel free to make a market on whether these leaks will turn out to be false, I'll happily bet on it.

https://twitter.com/WagnerTonight/status/1567332158959751168

Unless something comes up in the next 15 days contradicting this the market will resolve YES.

bought Ṁ5 of NO

As they realized there are no remedies barring his bid for President, (sans impeachment or “insurrection”), and that he has unilateral power to declassify anything this will all fade…

predicted NO

Commander in Chief, and all Executive Power vested in him means he can do as he pleases (again, with the political remedy of impeachment the sole recourse)

Not clear they could even “press charges” for conduct carried out while President unless done in the Senate/House

predicted YES

@Gigacasting If, as you say, the Executive can do whatever he wants, Joe Biden can reclassify the documents Trump declassified after he takes office and it doesn't fucking matter what Trump did while president. This is exactly how Executive Privilege works too, the current president is all powerful, the former president is just another dude beholden to the all powerful.

predicted YES

@Gigacasting And you are ignoring the fact that none of the statues cited in warrant require any of the documents to be classified at all. Irrelevant.

bought Ṁ5 of NO

Rumored that Barron has already built three nuclear weapons 🚀

predicted NO

Yellow cake found in Melania’a kitchen

predicted YES

@Gigacasting LOL. Melania doesn’t bake but I am sure she eats cake.

Needs clarity on whether documents under the Special Access Program would be included in a positive resolution.

@Treldman Yes since those documents are also covered under Top Secret, just a more specific designation.

predicted YES

Trump basically admitted as much this morning when he claimed Obama did it too.