In 1952 the Miller–Urey experiment has shown that simple amino acids can be produced in a natural environment of primordial Earth. However so far none of the experiments with a similar setup has resulted in the emergence of any forms of life.

This question will be resolved to YES when any research lab will demonstrate an emergence of any kind of self-replicating (proto-)organisms capable of evolution. This has to happen in an environment that can appear naturally somewhere in the known Universe. The environment could be dynamic (for example through simulated day-night cycle or cyclic geyser discharges).

The results have to be published as a peer-reviewed article. Alternatively they could be published as a preprint, publicized by the media and not refuted in the next month after the publication.

I will not bet on this market.