This market covers videos generated by AI from scratch (for instance from a text prompt), not AI transformations of an input video, which have existed for some time now.

The market will resolve positively when a channel on YouTube or Twitch will stream at least 25 hours of realtime AI-generated video in the span of 48 hours.

Traditional procedurally generated videos do not count. There should be consensus in the community that the video is AI-generated. The channel owner should declare it, and no plausible refutation should be published within a week after the broadcast. If the channel owner remains silent, I might resolve the market based on a poll or the comments.

I will most probably notice if any gen-AI channel gets linked on the front page on HN, or gets viral on Twitter, but in case I miss it, please link it in the comment if you come across the channel that fits the description.

I will generally resolve each answer as NO as soon as the respective time period is over, but I will delay the resolution by at least a week in both potential "YES" and "NO" cases in case I miss an existing channel, or if the claim that a stream is AI-generated gets refuted.

I do not bet on my own questions.

• Update 2025-07-01 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): For future answers, the resolution process will be updated:

  • An answer will be resolved to NO immediately after its corresponding time period ends, unless a qualifying channel is linked before the period is over.

  • This removes the one-week grace period for submitting evidence that was mentioned in the original description.