Will this Leopard Daytona Rolex sell for >$100k (USD) at its upcoming auction? (pic included)
Will this Leopard Daytona Rolex sell for >$100k (USD) at its upcoming auction? (pic included)
8
255Ṁ3195
resolved May 13
Resolved
YES

On May 12th, Phillips will host the "Geneva Watch Auction: XIX featuring the Guido Mondani Collection", including Lot 18, an especially "bling" Rolex (more details below). Link:

Rolex Ref. 116598SACO

A rare, impressive and like-new yellow gold, diamond and yellow sapphire-set chronograph wristwatch with guarantee and presentation box

The pre-auction estimate is

CHF60,000 - 120,000, which Phillips converts to USD as $66,400-133,000.

This market resolves YES if the final sale price listed on the Phillips website is >$100,000 USD.

Resolution details

  • Example from a past auction: this Patek Philippe watch lists "SOLD FOR CHF304,800". This is the equivalent number I will use.

  • Note that this final listed sale price may include an additional buyer's premium.

  • If the watch is withdrawn before the auction, or it fails to sell, this market resolves NO. It only resolves YES with a listed sale price during this auction of >$100,000.

  • The sale price will likely be reported in CHF (Swiss Francs). If Phillips directly reports a USD price, I will use that, otherwise I will use the Yahoo currency converter on the day I resolve the market.

    • For reference, at the time of market creation, it would take 91,240CHF to surpass $100,000 USD.

Watch details

Manufacturer: Rolex
Year: 2007
Reference No: 116598SACO
Case No: M245531
Model Name: Cosmograph Daytona "Leopard"
Material: 18K yellow gold, yellow sapphires and diamonds
Calibre: Automatic, cal. 4130, 44 jewels
Bracelet/Strap: Rolex leather strap with "Leopard" print

Introduced at Basel Fair in 2004, reference 116598 SACO immediately captured the eyes and hearts of Rolex fans. Set with diamond hour markers contrasting against a leopard print dial and strap, the watch was something entirely different than anything Rolex had conceived in the past. This print inspired the watch's nickname, "Leopard" (see catalogue entry)

For more auctions, check out the dashboard.

Get
Ṁ1,000
to start trading!

🏅 Top traders

#NameTotal profit
1Ṁ189
2Ṁ14
3Ṁ12
4Ṁ5
5Ṁ3

What is this?

What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
ṀWhy use play money?
Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
© Manifold Markets, Inc.TermsPrivacy