Will Vladimir Putin step foot in Ukraine by the end of 2024?
Dec 31
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I'd like to liquidate my position. What do you say @42irrationalist care for an exit? Set up a limit order

sold Ṁ89 YES

@WieDan I am currently planning to donate my mana so I am not interesting in increasing my stake in the market

@42irrationalist Well I wanted to exit for the same reason.
Unfortunately I can't exist most of my markets without losing most gains

@WieDan If you want to donate your mana, you can get a charity structuring loan. 3rd bullet point here. I successfully applied and received one, and they even added a non-profit I asked to the list of charities to https://manifold.markets/charity

@42irrationalist You could have just both sold at the same time lmao

bought Ṁ50 NO

Election day... nothing

@WieDan Yeah, this is looking less and less likely.

predicts NO

Russia is reportedly moving some air defences from Crimea to Russia due to increased fear of Ukrainian drone attacks.

predicts YES

When did the war "start"? 2014 or 2022? One includes Crimea, the other does not.

predicts NO

Ukraine now has the long distance capability to strike anywhere in Ukraine. Putin is a careful man. I think my accidental bet on the wrong date might pull through after all.

@WieDan I still think it's 70% since the presedential campaign is about to start and that's when I'm expecting him to visit.

predicts NO

@42irrationalist Yeah I mean I'm not certain I will win but at least I have a chance now. Announcing from Crimea seems very risky for abovementioned reason.

predicts NO

@42irrationalist I think if he visits it will be some sort of stealth visit where all the footage of him visiting comes out on the day he's leaving. I can't imagine him saying "Look here I am" given current capabilities.

predicts NO

I'm curious why you are such an adamant believer he will do this @42irrationalist
Just 4 months left...
60% seems extremely high

@WieDan He has to start his presidential campaign this year, so I think he'll likely visit at least Crimea for PR. I don't think it's 100%, mainly because the campaign officially starts fairly late the year whereas the "election" is in March. I think the chances of him visiting Crimea or new occupied territories before the election are like 90% and maybe 60-70% this year. I wouldn't be surprised he announces he's running from Crimea.

In March this year he already visited some new occupied territories and Crimea, it's not like we are talking about an event that never happened before.

@42irrationalist Just realized that the market close date is 2024! I am betting it even higher than 60% now. There are 16 months left and an entire Presidential campaign.

predicts NO

@42irrationalist Oh no wtf have I done! I would have never bet on this market if I realized this.

predicts NO

This is like the 3rd or 4th time I am getting fucked up by not reading the dates right. There should be some rule against mixing "By the end of x" and "Before x" all the time. :'(

predicts YES

@WieDan :( I know that feel bro. Recently lost 2.5k mana misreading the resolution criteria (though not dates-related).

predicts NO

Since we 2 are the only big betters on this market I can't sell without losing 90% lol
Might as well leave it like this I guess.

Since anywhere within the pre-war borders counts, this has already happened:


Putin visited not just Crimea or pre-2022 LPR/DPR, but some new occupied territories.

This should resolve as YES.

@42irrationalist oh wait, this is a new market that was created a day ago. In this case, would news report like this one result in YES? Would a new report like this one be enough for a YES resolution?

predicts NO

@42irrationalist i imagined it was about new visits

predicts YES

@WieDan yeah, I didn't realize initially that it was a new market.

predicts YES

@42irrationalist Yes, new visits.