Resolution criteria

This market resolves YES if the next president to take office who is not a Republican formally abolishes the U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) agency through legislation or executive action. Abolition means the agency ceases to exist as a distinct entity, with its functions either eliminated or transferred to other agencies. The market resolves NO if such a president takes office and does not abolish ICE during their term(s). If no non-Republican president takes office before the market creator specifies an end date, the market resolves N/A.

Background

Abolish ICE is a left-wing political movement that gained mainstream traction in June 2018 following controversy of the Trump administration family separation policy. While Democrats have largely avoided calling to abolish ICE, the movement has maintained support among progressive activists. The movement proposes that ICE's responsibilities be subsumed by other existing immigration agencies, as was the case before its creation. Immigration and Customs Enforcement was created in 2003, as part of the newly formed U.S. Department of Homeland Security (DHS).

Considerations

Abolishing ICE would require congressional legislation or a significant executive action, both of which face practical and political obstacles. U.S. Customs and Border Protection, not ICE, is responsible for border enforcement, so abolishing ICE alone would not end the ability of the United States to enforce its immigration laws. Additionally, public support for abolition remains limited—national polling by POLITICO/Morning Consult in July 2018 found that 25% of Americans favored abolishing ICE, while a majority supported keeping it.

A Term is for the person who wins and their successor if they leave the office early. For example if someone is elected in 2028 and leaves in 2030 but ice is abolished in 2031, it would still resolve yes, as that person is considered as finishing the term for this Market.