Context

Standard & Poor's currently rates France at AA- with a negative outlook. Fitch recently downgraded France from AA- to A+ on September 12, 2025, citing mounting political instability and uncertainty over fiscal consolidation.

Resolution Criteria

This market resolves to YES if S&P Global Ratings downgrades France's sovereign credit rating from AA- to A+ (or lower) on or before December 1, 2025. The market resolves to NO if France maintains its AA- rating or receives an upgrade by this date.

Resolution will be based on official announcements from S&P Global Ratings, which can be verified at: https://www.spglobal.com/ratings/en/

S&P's next scheduled review of France is expected in November 2025.