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MANIFOLD
Where will the airplane in “aviation is the most dangerous routine activity” land?
27
Ṁ995Ṁ807
resolved Sep 12
100%31%
dath ilan
2%
At its intended destination
0.6%
Earth
35%
Golarion
1.7%
the Worldwound
1.1%
One of the Golarion afterlives
29%Other

Thread: https://glowfic.com/posts/7263

Crashing counts as landing. If multiple true answers are bet on, the market will resolve to the most specific (e.g. "Lastwall" over "Golarion" if the plane lands in Lastwall)

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And eventually another plane takes off from Exception Handling Station 91, heading for Default Airport, the original planned destination.

tragic that this market is about "the" airplane

@MatthewGrayc2b2 I think the first airplane is the one the question is referencing.

@MartinRandall agreed, which is why as a "intended destination" better, that sentence is tragic (I was expecting the UI to render that above my comment, which maybe it did while the market was going?)

@MatthewGrayc2b2 I hadn't even thought of "intended by who?"

@MartinRandall presumably the ticket-buyers

How does the market resolve if two answers are applicable and one is not a subset of the other?

This market wants answer-splitting.

Crashing counts as landing. If multiple true answers are bet on, the market will resolve to the most specific (e.g. "Lastwall" over "Golarion" if the plane lands in Lastwall)

I mostly expected Lastwall, but it hasn't been made an option yet so I bet on Golarion. Does that mean if someone creates Lastwall at the last minute I lose and the people who picked Other win?

@eva_ You should be able to add new options yourself, can't you?

@Numendil I'm just not sure if it's fair to other traders if I change which answer is true after some people have bet on other ones?

@Numendil I will definitely make use of that feature 2 minutes after we have the answer, but before you've resolved the market! (But really, prediction markets ~don't need to settle, since new inflows allow people to cash out, unless you make "dath ilan" worth zero once the answer is "the backup location which would be expected given their position when they lost contact")