Will I find that the PIBBSS Fellowship was a success?

closed

Feb 9

49%

chance

Success here is ballparked as two fellows (out of however many) producing inputs or insights that I find to be of high quality. I may resolve the question positively if other win conditions are met, such as one insight being worth organizing the whole fellowship, etc. Note that I have a negativity bias. This question resolves whenever the PIBBSS Fellowship posts a summary document somewhere, or negatively by 06/2023. Note that I don't particularly plan to do much of my own research: I'll read that document and defer to it with regards to object-level facts, and will attempt to read any linked documents. The fellowship's website is: https://www.pibbss.ai/ Feb 1, 3:09pm: See also: https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/Ckont9EtqkenegLYv/introducing-the-principles-of-intelligent-behaviour-in for example projects.

Peter Hroššo bought M$50 of YES8 months ago

This is the first coordinated effort to boost multi-disciplinary AI alignment research that I know of. I think there will be plenty of low hanging fruit to pick up.

Eli Lifland bought M$70 of NO8 months ago

Even if I and others consider it a success, Nuno. might be more cynical.

Gavin Leech bought M$75 of YES8 months ago

Reference class used: AI safety camps, which have far less supervision, far less selection, far less pay.

Austin bought M$5 of YES8 months ago

Buying YES on the idea that 1) cohorts are the new effective way to run education https://future.a16z.com/cohort-based-courses/ and 2) I'm impressed by the mentors I recognize

Nuño Sempere bought M$1 of NO8 months ago

I started this market at 15%. But I would be lower (maybe 5%?) if I didn't know the organizers and they didn't seem so optimistic. Hopefully this site might help me track of whether I'm calibrated about the success of projects.