“With the governments’ leadership and close cooperation between partners, we believe we can stop these outbreaks in the next six months,” WHO Director-General Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus said at a press briefing.
https://apnews.com/article/mpox-outbreak-africa-who-2e89be27fac8467650e47ef9f7fbe0ec
I'm making this questions to keep track of the implied prediction. Question resolves positively if I subjectively decide that the monkeypox outbreak is over by the end of February 2025, for instance if we're seeing less than 10 cases a day of monkeypox (either clade) at the end of February 2025.
Update 2025-16-01 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - The outbreak will be considered over if there are fewer than 10 cases of monkeypox per day at the end of February 2025.
Resolution will be based on data from the CDC's situation summaries.
Update 2025-03-07 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Data Source Update:
Resolution will now rely on the WHO’s assessment of the outbreak rather than solely on CDC case counts.
Emergency Status:
The outbreak is considered ongoing if, as of the WHO’s statement from the 25 February 2025 meeting, it continues to be classified as a public health emergency of international concern.
Supporting Evidence:
WHO’s third IHR Emergency Committee meeting findings and the WHO shiny app data indicating that there are >10 cases per day.
1,000🏅 Top traders
| # | Trader | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ268 | |
| 2 | Ṁ65 | |
| 3 | Ṁ32 | |
| 4 | Ṁ19 | |
| 5 | Ṁ17 |
February update still not available: https://www.cdc.gov/mpox/situation-summary/index.html, probably because of the Trump administration switch.
In the meantime, the WHO says it's still an emergency, so I'm resolving it based on that: <https://www.who.int/news/item/27-02-2025-third-meeting-of-the-international-health-regulations-2005-emmergency-committee-regarding-the-upsurge-of-mpox-2024-temporary-recommendations>
The Director-General of the World Health Organization (WHO), following the third meeting of the International Health Regulations (2005) (IHR) Emergency Committee regarding the upsurge of mpox 2024, held on 25 February 2025, from 12:00 to 17:00 CET, concurs with its advice that the event continues to meet the criteria of a public health emergency of international concern
This is also concordant with <https://worldhealthorg.shinyapps.io/mpx_global/>, which to my reading does show > 10 cases/day
Question is closed, but per question details doesn't resolve until February. Commenting here since Manifold poked me about this question needing a resolution.
It's unclear how to resolve this, since dashboards for mpox are kind of poor. I'm leaning towards using (https://web.archive.org/web/20241229181256/https://www.cdc.gov/mpox/situation-summary/index.html, https://web.archive.org/web/20250116111751/https://www.cdc.gov/mpox/situation-summary/index.html): 23,998 - 23,767 = 16.5 cases/day, so above the 10 cases/day threshold. But we'll see where that is when the first February dashboard update arrives.