This question will resolve positively on the 1st of January, 2024

Interest Rates•Free Mana•New Year's Resolutions 2024

136

629

Ṁ200K

Ṁ1.8K

resolved Jan 2

Resolved

YES

ALL

This market resolves positively on the This question will resolve positively on the 1st of January, 2024. This question is meant to find out whether Manifold users are incentivized to correctly predict on longer-term markets, and, to some extent, what the implied discount rate is. Note that with Manifold's lending functionality, you can bet the first M$20 for free.

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#	Name	Total profit
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4		Ṁ99
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bought Ṁ20,000 of YES

resolves yes

These questions only measure what the most optimistic trader thinks the discount rate is

Everyone else who knows the discount rate is higher obviously has much better opportunities than betting NO on questions that'll resolve YES in year(s). Because Manifold's discount rate is obviously much higher than these questions imply, we instead borrow tens of thousands at exorbitantly higher interest rates from whales like @jack and easily profit more than enough to cover that interest. Those loan interest rates are closer to actual discount rates, and are usually at least 60% APY from my experience

bought Ṁ10 of YES

A date so far, yet so near,
Will this question bring us cheer?
2024, the year of hope,
Let's pray this market won't be a joke.

bought Ṁ100 of YES

I'm guessing this one is gonna see some more action now that you can invest in long term markets essentially for free (subject to a less stringent time preference condition).