This question will resolve positively on the 1st of January, 2024
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136
Ṁ200k
resolved Jan 2
Resolved
YES
This market resolves positively on the This question will resolve positively on the 1st of January, 2024. This question is meant to find out whether Manifold users are incentivized to correctly predict on longer-term markets, and, to some extent, what the implied discount rate is. Note that with Manifold's lending functionality, you can bet the first M$20 for free.
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resolves yes

These questions only measure what the most optimistic trader thinks the discount rate is

Everyone else who knows the discount rate is higher obviously has much better opportunities than betting NO on questions that'll resolve YES in year(s). Because Manifold's discount rate is obviously much higher than these questions imply, we instead borrow tens of thousands at exorbitantly higher interest rates from whales like @jack and easily profit more than enough to cover that interest. Those loan interest rates are closer to actual discount rates, and are usually at least 60% APY from my experience

A date so far, yet so near,
Will this question bring us cheer?
2024, the year of hope,
Let's pray this market won't be a joke.

I'm guessing this one is gonna see some more action now that you can invest in long term markets essentially for free (subject to a less stringent time preference condition).

Just bet M$100, which is a small portion of the cash I have on hand. I would bet more but I need the liquidity.
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