This question will resolve positively on the 1st of January, 2024
136
1.8kṀ200kresolved Jan 2
Resolved
YES1D
1W
1M
ALL
This market resolves positively on the This question will resolve positively on the 1st of January, 2024. This question is meant to find out whether Manifold users are incentivized to correctly predict on longer-term markets, and, to some extent, what the implied discount rate is. Note that with Manifold's lending functionality, you can bet the first M$20 for free.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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| # | Name | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ296 | |
| 2 | Ṁ253 | |
| 3 | Ṁ169 | |
| 4 | Ṁ99 | |
| 5 | Ṁ86 |
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These questions only measure what the most optimistic trader thinks the discount rate is
Others knowing the discount rate is higher have better opportunities than betting NO on questions that'll resolve YES in year(s). Because Manifold's discount rate is much higher than these questions imply, we instead borrow tens of thousands at exorbitantly higher interest rates from whales like @jack and profit more than enough to cover that. Those loan interest rates are closer to actual discount rates, and are usually >60% APY from my experience
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