How many additional subscribers will my newsletter have by the end of February?
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Ṁ1772resolved Mar 1
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This market resolves to the number of subscribers over 800 that my newsletter has by end of February 2022. E.g., if I gain 10 subscribers, this market resolves to 10%. If I loose subscribers or if I get more than 100 new ones, this market resolves to 0% or 100% respectively. Past data can be seen here: https://twitter.com/NunoSempere/status/1488282463067594754
and the newsletter I'm talking about is https://forecasting.substack.com/
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Yeah, I got a nice mention by Scott Alexander here: https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/the-passage-of-polymarket
You gained roughly 200 over past 3 months
200/90 = 2.22 per day
2.22 * 7 = 15.554 = round up to 16 over one week
5 people bought yes. So, i'll assume they subscribed.
16+5= 21. Market implied 49 which looked like an overestimation to me so here i bet.
Also, There seem to be some sudden rises in the graph but the prob of one happening in this one week seems low granted there was no major post during the timeline.
Great use of the new PROB resolution mechanism! This feels like an easy buy to 40 new subscribers; by rough eyeballing, the current trend is 200 new subs per 3 months. And now I'm incentivized to drive more traffic to https://forecasting.substack.com/