resolved
Mar 1No Group
How many additional subscribers will my newsletter have by the end of February?
Resolved
84%This market resolves to the number of subscribers over 800 that my newsletter has by end of February 2022. E.g., if I gain 10 subscribers, this market resolves to 10%. If I loose subscribers or if I get more than 100 new ones, this market resolves to 0% or 100% respectively. Past data can be seen here: https://twitter.com/NunoSempere/status/1488282463067594754
and the newsletter I'm talking about is https://forecasting.substack.com/
🏅 Top traders
| # | Name | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 |  James | M$7 |
| 2 |  Matej Vrzala | M$4 |
| 3 |  ttmmghmm ttmmghmm | M$4 |
| 4 |  Matthew Sullivan | M$2 |
| 5 |  chris lkj | M$0 |
💸 Best bet
A trader sold M$82 of YES from 98.1% to 98%8 months ago
Austin made M$40!
Yeah, I got a nice mention by Scott Alexander here: https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/the-passage-of-polymarket
0
You gained roughly 200 over past 3 months
200/90 = 2.22 per day
2.22 * 7 = 15.554 = round up to 16 over one week
5 people bought yes. So, i'll assume they subscribed.
16+5= 21. Market implied 49 which looked like an overestimation to me so here i bet.
Also, There seem to be some sudden rises in the graph but the prob of one happening in this one week seems low granted there was no major post during the timeline.
0
Great use of the new PROB resolution mechanism! This feels like an easy buy to 40 new subscribers; by rough eyeballing, the current trend is 200 new subs per 3 months. And now I'm incentivized to drive more traffic to https://forecasting.substack.com/
0
A trader sold M$2 of NO from 97% to 98%7 months ago
A trader sold M$14 of YES at 97%7 months ago
A trader sold M$59 of YES from 98% to 97%7 months ago
A trader bought M$2 of NO at 98%8 months ago
A trader sold M$82 of YES from 98.1% to 98%8 months ago
A trader sold M$10 of YES at 98.1%8 months ago
A trader sold M$17 of NO from 96% to 98.1%8 months ago
A trader sold M$33 of YES at 96%8 months ago
A trader sold M$15 of YES at 96%8 months ago
A trader sold M$41 of YES at 96%8 months ago
A trader bought M$10 of YES at 96%8 months ago
A trader bought M$1,000 of YES from 73% to 96%8 months ago
A trader bought M$50 of YES from 67% to 73%8 months ago
A trader bought M$20 of YES from 65% to 67%8 months ago
A trader bought M$33 of YES from 60% to 65%8 months ago
A trader bought M$75 of YES from 43% to 60%8 months ago
A trader bought M$10 of YES from 40% to 43%8 months ago
A trader bought M$10 of YES from 37% to 40%8 months ago
A trader bought M$20 of YES from 30% to 37%8 months ago
A trader bought M$80 of NO from 49% to 30%8 months ago
A trader bought M$10 of YES from 46% to 49%8 months ago
A trader bought M$10 of NO from 49% to 46%8 months ago
A trader bought M$11 of YES from 45% to 49%8 months ago
A trader bought M$10 of YES from 40% to 45%8 months ago
A trader bought M$5 of YES from 38% to 40%8 months ago
A trader bought M$40 of YES from 10% to 38%8 months ago