Nuño Sempere
resolved Mar 1
Resolved as
84%1D
1W
1M
ALL
This market resolves to the number of subscribers over 800 that my newsletter has by end of February 2022. E.g., if I gain 10 subscribers, this market resolves to 10%. If I loose subscribers or if I get more than 100 new ones, this market resolves to 0% or 100% respectively. Past data can be seen here: https://twitter.com/NunoSempere/status/1488282463067594754
and the newsletter I'm talking about is https://forecasting.substack.com/
🏅 Top traders
| # | Name | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ40 | |
| 2 | Ṁ23 | |
| 3 | Ṁ12 | |
| 4 | Ṁ7 | |
| 5 | Ṁ4 |
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Yeah, I got a nice mention by Scott Alexander here: https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/the-passage-of-polymarket
You gained roughly 200 over past 3 months
200/90 = 2.22 per day
2.22 * 7 = 15.554 = round up to 16 over one week
5 people bought yes. So, i'll assume they subscribed.
16+5= 21. Market implied 49 which looked like an overestimation to me so here i bet.
Also, There seem to be some sudden rises in the graph but the prob of one happening in this one week seems low granted there was no major post during the timeline.
Great use of the new PROB resolution mechanism! This feels like an easy buy to 40 new subscribers; by rough eyeballing, the current trend is 200 new subs per 3 months. And now I'm incentivized to drive more traffic to https://forecasting.substack.com/
A trader sold Ṁ2 NO from 97% to 98%
A trader sold Ṁ14 YES at 97%
A trader sold Ṁ59 YES from 98% to 97%
A trader bought Ṁ2 NO at 98%
A trader sold Ṁ82 YES from 98.1% to 98%
A trader sold Ṁ10 YES at 98.1%
A trader sold Ṁ17 NO from 96% to 98.1%
A trader sold Ṁ33 YES at 96%
A trader sold Ṁ15 YES at 96%
A trader sold Ṁ41 YES at 96%
A trader bought Ṁ10 YES at 96%
A trader bought Ṁ1,000 YES from 73% to 96%
A trader bought Ṁ50 YES from 67% to 73%
A trader bought Ṁ20 YES from 65% to 67%
A trader bought Ṁ33 YES from 60% to 65%
A trader bought Ṁ75 YES from 43% to 60%
A trader bought Ṁ10 YES from 40% to 43%
A trader bought Ṁ10 YES from 37% to 40%
A trader bought Ṁ20 YES from 30% to 37%
A trader bought Ṁ80 NO from 49% to 30%
A trader bought Ṁ10 YES from 46% to 49%
A trader bought Ṁ10 NO from 49% to 46%
A trader bought Ṁ11 YES from 45% to 49%
A trader bought Ṁ10 YES from 40% to 45%
A trader bought Ṁ5 YES from 38% to 40%
A trader bought Ṁ40 YES from 10% to 38%